Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94422b1ffe0d9e530b9a7ad5045a43d405e5d5393af0e12bad3cc78bdd3b6e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 862.73$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.26 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 848.22$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 477.23$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 448.1$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 431.29$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 411.73$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 374.08$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 299.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 289.31$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 236.09$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 215$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 194.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 182.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 181.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 176.14$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 150.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 55c | 138.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 138$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 136.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 10c | 127.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 36c | 126.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 22c | 122.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 108.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 105$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 101$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 97.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 96.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 65c | 93.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 33c | 85.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 81.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 20c | 72.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 70.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 72c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 68.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 36c | 67.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 67.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 58.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 76c | 51.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 47.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 47.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 22c | 46.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 36c | 46.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 43.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 63c | 39.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 34.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 31.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…b788backed No | 73c | 27.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 24.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 22.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 20.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 14.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 89°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.