Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 89°F or below on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a221cc8b635ee82a22db9494e65b89f2562e1626309ccebcaff869ffa10019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,216$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 22c | 1,329$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.84 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 1,169$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 766.76$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.04 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 39c | 644.65$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 626.07$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 602.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 536.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 59c | 496.99$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.05 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 491.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 482.4$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 467.69$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 406.83$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 365.26$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 351.65$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 25c | 312.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 251.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 229$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 204.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 188.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 186.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 185.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 182.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 37c | 154$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 151.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 148.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 39c | 148.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8223…7cecbacked Yes | 36c | 132.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 131.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 64c | 118.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 54c | 117.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 116.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 63c | 114.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 109.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 58c | 101$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 101$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 85.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 62c | 85.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 80.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 76c | 78.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…dab4backed Yes | 39c | 77.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 66c | 76.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 62c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 70.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 65.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 41c | 64.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 78c | 62.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 73c | 59.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…cc6cbacked Yes | 38c | 56.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 31c | 55.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 66c | 54.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…a313backed Yes | 29c | 54.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 71c | 54.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 73c | 54.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 53.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 38c | 49.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 64c | 47.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 56c | 46.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 43.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 28c | 40.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 30c | 38.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 39c | 37.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 35.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddf…b38cbacked No | 77c | 34.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 33.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 73c | 31.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 69c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 27.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 21.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 79c | 21.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 89°F or below on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.