Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551639c4a7faf71ee70a283729bce52a297025faee3057f141be00087d3412ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 12,909$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 7c | 11,832$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.93 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 7,189$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 4,673$3,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.48 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 27c | 1,482$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 1,431$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.93 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…5d1bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,013$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Yes | 28c | 867.86$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 740.74$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked No | 73c | 503.45$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…1981backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…eda7backed Yes | 27c | 433.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ba…16d1backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Yes | 27c | 371.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…0088backed Yes | 19c | 362.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 27c | 333.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 5c | 333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 75c | 319.08$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 15c | 313.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…f1dabacked Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed Yes | 32c | 237.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 17c | 214.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 24c | 197.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 160.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 34c | 127.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 26c | 111.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 28c | 111.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 110.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…8f0dbacked Yes | 26c | 78.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…5b32backed Yes | 32c | 76.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed Yes | 28c | 71.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 28c | 54.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8518…0ca2backed Yes | 28c | 51.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked No | 74c | 23.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 73c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-29?No won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.