NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5540dd71eacb5cdc14f7a45e3b4a5d18527b0c241d2f37c327be84a61a126c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Under | 48c | 54,820$26,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,450.13 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Over | 52c | 26,616$13,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,840.52 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 17,356$8,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,961.27 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 48c | 7,163$3,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,711.76 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 51c | 5,021$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560.71 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 4,132$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.88 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 52c | 4,028$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.56 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 49c | 3,500$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.4 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 51c | 707.8$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.94 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 52c | 362.26$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.38 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 263.14$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Under | 47c | 209.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 181.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 52c | 171$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Under | 49c | 143.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Under | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 40.5this page
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 18.5Under won
- Broncos vs. TexansBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.