NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5ce8675da851ad0b1e4a8b62fb55968e19bb96c468973463b58dfbd0d8551d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Texans, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Texans | 53c | 7,203$3,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,817.59 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Broncos | 47c | 4,500$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Broncos | 47c | 4,099$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.6 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Texans | 53c | 1,745$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.44 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…84cebacked Texans | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Broncos | 48c | 718.75$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.75 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Broncos | 48c | 644.97$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.94 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Broncos | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Texans | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Texans | 52c | 292.83$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.27 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Texans | 52c | 289.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…e5a1backed Broncos | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Texans | 51c | 206$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Texans | 51c | 204.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Broncos | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Broncos | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Broncos | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Broncos | 48c | 147$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Texans | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Texans | 53c | 123.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Texans | 52c | 100.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Broncos | 50c | 86.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Broncos | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Broncos | 44c | 60.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Broncos | 48c | 55.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…a8c1backed Broncos | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2992…e409backed Broncos | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc17…f8fdbacked Broncos | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Texans | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…58afbacked Texans | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)this page
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 18.5Under won
- Broncos vs. TexansBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 39.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.