NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f4f0a15534da96f99a6974eb28dec6d7d3cb9b08284611836c90267bcef41c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 54c | 30,000$16,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,199.99 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…eb90backed Over | 55c | 27,000$14,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,850 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…0e3ebacked Under | 45c | 27,000$12,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,845.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 12,898$5,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,099.84 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 46c | 7,082$3,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,820.37 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 47c | 5,826$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,086.99 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Under | 46c | 4,507$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.52 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 46c | 4,300$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Under | 47c | 4,009$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.31 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 3,104$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 1,342$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 55c | 1,276$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.56 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 903.06$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.65 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…9868backed Over | 55c | 872.72$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 56c | 650$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 46c | 565.22$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.22 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 69c | 560$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Under | 45c | 555$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.68 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 555$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.9 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 420.86$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.09 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 52c | 382.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.73 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 54c | 380.56$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…d262backed Under | 44c | 345$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 57c | 306$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.42 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…d786backed Under | 44c | 285$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Under | 46c | 280$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…6ad2backed Over | 56c | 230$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…4341backed Over | 56c | 210$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…fe31backed Over | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…516ebacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 48c | 82.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec8…9a19backed Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 44c | 69.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 53c | 53.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…c142backed Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…ca00backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Under | 48c | 38.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…2b2dbacked Over | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…9f25backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 56c | 29.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 57c | 24.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Under | 48c | 24.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 54c | 22.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 39.5this page
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 18.5Under won
- Broncos vs. TexansBroncos won
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 38.5Under won
- Broncos vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.