Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55761f725ae0272c8ac632472cd74b88ed3e9af82680a362826e095d5d9ff77e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chelsea FCof Newcastle United FC, Chelsea FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chelsea FC | 56c | 4,348$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.36 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed Newcastle United FC | 59c | 3,762$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.71 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Newcastle United FC | 59c | 2,355$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.3 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Newcastle United FC | 61c | 2,274$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.68 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa297…8e9bbacked Chelsea FC | 41c | 2,123$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Newcastle United FC | 35c | 1,638$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.52 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Newcastle United FC | 63c | 1,580$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.5 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Newcastle United FC | 15c | 1,499$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.85 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Newcastle United FC | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Newcastle United FC | 17c | 937.29$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…c724backed Newcastle United FC | 19c | 912.37$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Newcastle United FC | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a7…eb44backed Chelsea FC | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Chelsea FC | 38c | 338$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.56 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Newcastle United FC | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Newcastle United FC | 16c | 262.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…cce6backed Chelsea FC | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Newcastle United FC | 14c | 225$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Chelsea FC | 70c | 223.33$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Chelsea FC | 59c | 152.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Chelsea FC | 55c | 151.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c8…8538backed Chelsea FC | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed Newcastle United FC | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…e997backed Chelsea FC | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Newcastle United FC | 14c | 98.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Newcastle United FC | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Newcastle United FC | 62c | 83.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ca…253fbacked Newcastle United FC | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Chelsea FC | 40c | 68.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Newcastle United FC | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…b230backed Newcastle United FC | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Newcastle United FC | 60c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…c02cbacked Chelsea FC | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…2ca9backed Chelsea FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Chelsea FC | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Chelsea FC | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chelsea FC | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Newcastle United FC | 60c | 40.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Newcastle United FC | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Newcastle United FC | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Newcastle United FC | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Newcastle United FC | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Newcastle United FC | 61c | 37.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Chelsea FC | 73c | 30.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked Chelsea FC | 78c | 28.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Chelsea FC | 56c | 27.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 259 | 49.4%128 W · 131 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed Chelsea FC | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Chelsea FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chelsea FC | 65c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.