TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bushido Wildcatsof Lilmix, Bushido Wildcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Lilmix56c3,265$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.183,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27c5…6d61backed Bushido Wildcats42c2,306$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.826934.8%24 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Lilmix45c1,173$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.566,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Lilmix59c717.38$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.274856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Bushido Wildcats55c675.15$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.894,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Bushido Wildcats47c664.28$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.35,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lilmix24c626.22$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.883,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix33c537.96$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.035,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Bushido Wildcats54c490.82$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.518750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc22…5738backed Lilmix61c428.17$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.591844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Bushido Wildcats68c425.38$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.584454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Bushido Wildcats55c365.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4510339.8%41 W · 62 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Lilmix59c357.85$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.122,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2f…a15fbacked Bushido Wildcats57c357.61$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1819055.8%106 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Lilmix41c353.65$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.752,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Bushido Wildcats48c353.27$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.1723858%138 W · 100 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix42c313.83$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.477,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Lilmix6c296$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.361,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Bushido Wildcats70c280.26$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.845,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Bushido Wildcats45c278$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.99540%38 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Lilmix38c273.97$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.117255.6%40 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d1f…a252backed Bushido Wildcats53c270.63$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5815033.3%50 W · 100 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Bushido Wildcats61c247.32$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.336038.3%23 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked Bushido Wildcats43c241.78$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.2526257.6%151 W · 111 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Lilmix32c215.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.795625%14 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…48e7backed Bushido Wildcats61c207.41$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Bushido Wildcats64c207.19$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6911242%47 W · 65 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5248…f07dbacked Bushido Wildcats68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Lilmix38c188.37$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.641,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Bushido Wildcats50c174.47$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4680744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Lilmix66c159$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9424641.9%103 W · 143 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Lilmix39c157.85$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.222,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2a5d…e3f4backed Lilmix67c149.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked Bushido Wildcats56c133.71$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8345450.2%228 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bushido Wildcats67c127$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.911,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Bushido Wildcats33c124.06$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.121,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Lilmix54c122.82$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8340652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Lilmix61c119.77$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.692,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bushido Wildcats43c117.69$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.81,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Lilmix28c112.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.611,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Lilmix31c110$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.135744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Lilmix53c106.85$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1291648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Bushido Wildcats67c105$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6515732.5%51 W · 106 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c68…fd19backed Lilmix76c103.4$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.36520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick66cpaid-73.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed Bushido Wildcats80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013347.4%63 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Lilmix30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Lilmix36c94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2839239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Lilmix40c94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2448948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82cf…d4c9backed Lilmix65c93.81$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x931c…bf4bbacked Bushido Wildcats63c91.88$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9932351.4%166 W · 157 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Lilmix52c90$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8646843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed Lilmix50c89.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4554439.7%216 W · 328 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Lilmix59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025753.7%138 W · 119 L-20.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lilmix29c82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.82,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Bushido Wildcats55c81.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.542,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Lilmix50c81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.579951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Lilmix40c77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8446344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad3…8065backed Bushido Wildcats47c76.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8821…32c6backed Bushido Wildcats51c76.03$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.925957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Bushido Wildcats66c76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8418063.9%115 W · 65 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8932…1cc4backed Lilmix67c74.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.627751.9%40 W · 37 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Lilmix31c73.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6429044.8%130 W · 160 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Bushido Wildcats67c62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4645639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bc0…b4aebacked Lilmix51c62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Bushido Wildcats67c61.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2910561%64 W · 41 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Lilmix35c61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.228733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Lilmix34c59.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.092951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Bushido Wildcats31c55.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5736845.9%169 W · 199 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Bushido Wildcats66c53.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.137847.4%37 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Lilmix31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.524633.3%82 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x726a…196bbacked Lilmix37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5043…c922backed Lilmix45c49.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.612334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Lilmix37c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6824747%116 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7387…31b0backed Bushido Wildcats35c47.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Bushido Wildcats64c47.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.736649.5%181 W · 185 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f02…ce9bbacked Lilmix64c46.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa423…d3dfbacked Bushido Wildcats30c46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.325036%18 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked Lilmix66c44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.099457.4%54 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf901…5f48backed Lilmix31c43.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.468444%37 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Bushido Wildcats62c41.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.958149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x023d…23acbacked Lilmix55c40.25$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.964151.2%21 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed Lilmix46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.47948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe098…5b74backed Bushido Wildcats33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+178.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Lilmix53c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.044010%4 W · 36 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-79.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4a5b…c002backed Bushido Wildcats54c37.02$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b1…b066backed Bushido Wildcats61c36.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.214959.2%29 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Lilmix53c35.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0627556.7%156 W · 119 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bushido Wildcats32c34.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.622,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Bushido Wildcats64c34.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4419252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0627…d18dbacked Lilmix58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa574…4596backed Lilmix35c34.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1704…35febacked Lilmix34c34.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked Lilmix51c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.245211.5%6 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Bushido Wildcats65c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.782,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Bushido Wildcats49c31.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8737339.7%148 W · 225 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x738a…1a9ebacked Lilmix50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.922334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc09f…d9d0backed Lilmix51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cc…3533backed Lilmix68c29.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208664%55 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0324…fdbcbacked Bushido Wildcats68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Lilmix43c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6849745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.