Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a7f9b6fb9aae41fd04aa7397bfd4200e10fc272b223d8afd38022f16ee135d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 1,845$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 79c | 998.28$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.44 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 16c | 797.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 654.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.02 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 633.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 609.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.74 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 541.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 496.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.59 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 73c | 476.21$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.01 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 28c | 431.57$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.88 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 15c | 417.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.5 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 18c | 413.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 5c | 394.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.88 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 6c | 325.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 7c | 307.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 306$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed No | 16c | 303.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 298.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 289.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.4 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 286.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 260.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 9c | 254.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 231.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 25c | 211$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 41c | 206.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 73c | 199.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 7c | 180.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.9 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 178.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 156.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 145$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 9c | 139.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 122.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f02bbacked No | 14c | 108.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 11c | 108.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 77c | 108$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 59c | 89.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 73.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 73.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 30c | 72.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 19c | 70.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 61c | 69.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 18c | 69.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1fb5backed No | 80c | 50.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 76c | 47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 44c | 33.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…172abacked No | 55c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 63c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 14.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.