Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3979810b95bf8c4be4c0aabea886967e64fc99353ea142688ca0c36a3e23262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 2c | 4,578$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 10c | 537.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 56c | 466.31$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 68c | 424.5$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 340.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 312$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.38 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 306$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 27c | 286.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 59c | 264.01$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.72 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 48c | 255$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 249.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 63c | 246.26$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 65c | 235.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 18c | 230$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 29c | 224.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 78c | 222.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 46c | 217.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 210.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 15c | 199.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 33c | 187.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 74c | 170.31$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 53c | 163.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 52c | 161.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 34c | 159.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 47c | 141.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 57c | 138.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 58c | 133$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 71c | 128.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 54c | 126.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 28c | 106.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 70c | 105.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 72c | 103.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 101.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 54c | 100.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 69c | 97.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 15c | 94.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 54c | 92.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 56c | 88.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 87.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 76c | 82.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 46c | 80.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 40c | 78.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 65c | 76.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed No | 47c | 76.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 51c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 56c | 71.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 72c | 70.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 31c | 70.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 32c | 66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 59c | 64.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 78c | 64.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 63.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 65c | 59.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 32c | 58.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 62c | 56.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 46c | 53.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 53.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 75c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 47c | 52.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked No | 56c | 52.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 79c | 50.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 69c | 50.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 63c | 49.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 68c | 46.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 46.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed No | 44c | 45.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 29c | 44.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 30c | 43.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 32c | 42.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 30c | 42.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…af5bbacked No | 46c | 42.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 40.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 36c | 39.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…b6b0backed Yes | 62c | 37.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 72c | 37.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 53c | 36.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 69c | 35.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 37c | 35.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 65c | 34.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 48c | 31.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed Yes | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.