Chris Richards: 3+ shots

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ceb314adcc180bc43f75cdcd8fc4e674e0945fbb1eb4f3698529cdb10f825c

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,031 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdd0c…35b0backed Yes	5c	1,200$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacca…3fb0backed Yes	5c	950$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.55	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83d…826fbacked Yes	5c	928$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.47	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a45…2b4dbacked Yes	13c	899.89$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.03	34	0%0 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb294…a9f4backed Yes	39c	671.06$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.93	62	61.3%38 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b86…e2b1backed Yes	5c	350$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	32	3.1%1 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8b…da36backed No	60c	205.23$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.09	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+3.9wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc83…fdd4backed No	60c	63.32$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+4.9wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47c0…0974backed No	60c	63.32$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…83adbacked No	60c	63.32$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	50	72%36 W · 14 L	+9.0wins	+0.18per pick	54cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdb93…94cfbacked No	60c	63.32$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	66	68.2%45 W · 21 L	+11.0wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6c82…00d5backed No	60c	63.32$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+7.2wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf8c…8f2bbacked No	60c	63.32$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	57	63.2%36 W · 21 L	+7.6wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+17%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed No	60c	52.87$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.15	94	55.3%52 W · 42 L	+6.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Chris Richards: 3+ shots

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event