Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8f6b9c9d0dcad46b23b7058a683b2f7a5400e6a1d9dea810d8c760cc6510472

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $80,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,607 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes	10c	31,251$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	324	29.9%97 W · 227 L	+10.4wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Yes	9c	11,111$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	70	38.6%27 W · 43 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…b7cdbacked Yes	9c	6,667$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf29…e395backed Yes	0c	5,846$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	98	30.6%30 W · 68 L	-7.2wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18e6…d83dbacked Yes	9c	5,556$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-12.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3554…d825backed Yes	9c	1,211$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b02…083abacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Yes	10c	950$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	193	17.1%33 W · 160 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Yes	2c	789.45$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.37	33	0%0 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes	2c	789.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	87	13.8%12 W · 75 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4665…23a8backed Yes	9c	761.9$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes	8c	711.66$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.93	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa76c…dc83backed Yes	9c	563.56$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.72	160	16.3%26 W · 134 L	-11.0wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1980…3c8dbacked Yes	9c	561.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8536…bed6backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b1…06b3backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	+23%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x573d…48f3backed Yes	10c	459.8$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.98	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1406…b512backed Yes	9c	433.33$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	59	33.9%20 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…be19backed Yes	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	323	12.1%39 W · 284 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	9c	373.29$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.96	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	8c	362.5$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1897…2a42backed Yes	8c	273.61$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	404	35.6%144 W · 260 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb60e…21bfbacked Yes	9c	270.33$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b3…0c0ebacked Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	135	31.9%43 W · 92 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fed…0d36backed Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x776a…5349backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb649…e988backed Yes	9c	233.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b8…2d31backed Yes	10c	201.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	256	39.1%100 W · 156 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	200	36.5%73 W · 127 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e28…f043backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	44.8%77 W · 95 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…e233backed Yes	7c	173.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c56…c0c9backed Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	30cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcac9…b4bbbacked Yes	9c	155.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+63.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf726…7e8bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 59 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event