TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes17c3,580$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,987.3923429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes3c2,225$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.831,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes52c1,969$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.451,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes31c1,878$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.2395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c1,651$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.654,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c1,213$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.315,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes16c1,066$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.068,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…9044backed Yes3c1,036$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.58920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c935.12$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes9c927.81$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.664,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c890.71$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.474,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes52c763.02$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.628749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes36c729.49$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.4223241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes7c671.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.8710134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No29c558.88$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes14c523.48$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.7416038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c443.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.762,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes12c410.1$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.3410030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes18c400$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.5442820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes3c371.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.271884.8%9 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+91.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes68c343.75$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.975637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes17c293.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.413430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes9c274$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.076219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No18c272.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.672,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c259.98$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.576,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No67c253.45$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.071,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Yes36c252.79$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.81968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+44.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes20c251.09$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.0420144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No26c247.62$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.242,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes10c241.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.037132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes70c219.43$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.286,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes18c194.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1510023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No60c192.47$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.922,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes8c191.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.411,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No66c190.35$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.132,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No62c170.09$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.331,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No74c154.69$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.142,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c143.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No80c141.92$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.541,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No16c135.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.252,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes28c131.32$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.022,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes8c131.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.862,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No73c123.53$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.792,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No61c122.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.52,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No74c121.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.862,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a22…2851backed Yes17c117$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.111136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes10c110.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9218222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No62c101.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.942,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes12c99.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9943441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad5b…faddbacked Yes19c89.04$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.152227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes23c75.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9516543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes37c68.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.492,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes43c65.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2834067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No70c63.36$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3342762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes53c57.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0861629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes22c54.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.59646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4453…fc75backed Yes22c51.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.416527.7%18 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+68.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75f1…907dbacked No64c51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.641618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-62%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes29c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes51c46.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8113531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes39c45.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.963844.7%17 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes48c41.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.345543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e04…80babacked Yes36c36.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.686349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No77c32.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7421472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes76c28.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.971,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes68c27.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.634628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No74c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4311859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes52c22.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9110246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4516…9b59backed No78c21.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4de1…6f7bbacked Yes48c21.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.38944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked Yes50c21.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.897231.9%23 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes65c21.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4941…b03cbacked No66c21.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8413363.9%85 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0456…3235backed No58c20.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No61c19.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.239262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No62c19.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.372,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No73c16.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.198073.8%59 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.133962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.