Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf667a69ba41fc59eea84117e15ac85b5544ca2dc51454a0f7f8bfda6a9b97d1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 3c | 20,829$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.08 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 18c | 19,867$3,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,585.21 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 3,258$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 2,652$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 43c | 2,234$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 2c | 2,174$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 4c | 2,098$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 1,739$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 1,597$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 72c | 1,497$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.04 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 1,478$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.65 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,339$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 23c | 1,279$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.24 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 3c | 1,090$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 43c | 949.42$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.4 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 880.52$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 839.64$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 808.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 747.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 733.57$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 12c | 566.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 530.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 503.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.88 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 449.26$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 10c | 409.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 14c | 404.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 15c | 340.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 30c | 337.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 10c | 309.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 13c | 295.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 27c | 295.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 235.65$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 218$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 212.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked Yes | 20c | 206.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 49c | 205.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 30c | 197.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.25 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 13c | 194.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 186.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 165.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 17c | 157.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 154.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x11b7…cb21backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…ea44backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 145.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 18c | 145$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 131.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 119.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 75c | 117.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 19c | 113.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 80c | 112.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 106.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 104.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 18c | 99.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 99.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 95.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 95.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 88.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 48c | 81.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 66.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 38c | 60.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 51c | 59.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 35c | 57.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 75c | 54.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 49.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 48.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 45.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 57c | 43.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 48c | 35.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 26.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 49c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 79c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 74c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 64c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 72c | 17.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…3235backed No | 73c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.