Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce7b603329e2a9afc9598b3d6f37f5d98bf33f158cab3272a42d39002e0f4ddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,524$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,004$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 1,613$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.58 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 29c | 1,516$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.37 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 891.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed No | 74c | 693.21$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.21 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 555.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 25c | 509.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 431$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 3c | 401.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 367.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 347.55$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 242.38$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 242.17$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 12c | 233.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 219$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 205.54$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 6c | 200.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 14c | 189.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 15c | 184.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 158.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 122.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 69c | 114$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 26c | 111.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 31c | 109.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 27c | 107.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 106.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 23c | 99.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 99.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 16c | 83.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 80.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 23c | 78.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 28c | 74.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…e526backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 67.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 72c | 66.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…9fddbacked Yes | 31c | 59.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 46.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 67c | 37.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 30c | 33.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 73c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 78c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 70c | 32.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.