Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe3fa0eb524394a5b1c890cd12039d8fdbcc4181def3350c01d2fbae9e951fa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 2,832$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.65 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 34c | 2,351$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.98 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 2c | 2,196$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 12c | 1,891$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,306$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,193$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 1c | 1,183$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,183$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,071$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 70c | 999.98$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 25c | 540.64$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 531$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 451.77$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 412.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 20c | 383.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 347.9$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 315.84$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 27c | 314.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 284.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 26c | 252.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 31c | 231.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 202.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 199.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 193.07$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 189.93$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 26c | 172$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 153$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 146.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 126.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 23c | 125.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 119.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 115.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 113.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 102.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 27c | 102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 100.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 40c | 99.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 39c | 96.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 96.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 95.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked Yes | 30c | 92.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 27c | 90.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 86.02$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 83.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 75.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 29c | 72.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…a349backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 25c | 68.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 66.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 56.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 51.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 49.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 31c | 48.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 41.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 28c | 40.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 40.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 33c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 39.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 38.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 37.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 37.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 44c | 36.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 30c | 35.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 35.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 35.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 35.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 74c | 34.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 72c | 34.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 32.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…834bbacked No | 64c | 32.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 58c | 30.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 40c | 29.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 59c | 28.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 28.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.