TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6297…517ebacked Yes0c7,484$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.081,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0462…8374backed Yes0c2,833$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-86.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes1c2,792$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes2c1,950$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes19c1,749$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.031,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes33c1,506$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8789544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c1,403$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.684,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No80c999.98$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes3c940.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.854,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed No78c770.16$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.165637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c528.23$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.954,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes21c482.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes34c379.02$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.991,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c363.62$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed No69c346.88$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2610134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb9…191abacked No69c322.08$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.441741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3be7…ad70backed Yes4c293.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0913411.9%16 W · 118 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No72c281$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.392,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No67c238.52$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.712,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes9c186$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9420144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes26c185.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.613,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes23c172.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes20c165$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No70c141.7$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.111,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c135.1$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.254,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes24c134.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.164,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c126.55$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.553,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c125.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.072,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes16c125.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c118.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.689,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes30c113$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.912941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes27c109.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes28c107.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes18c106.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4215553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa368…1b9cbacked Yes19c104.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No66c99.23$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes29c98.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.491323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes20c98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.031,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes31c93.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.016237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c88.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes23c84.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.166439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes23c84.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.076648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes31c82.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes25c80.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No72c75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.732,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No71c74.68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.429351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes35c70.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.72416.7%4 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c67.84$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes27c66.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.883,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes32c63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8623241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No70c61.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4423429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes33c61.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.884930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes22c56.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.75,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No71c56.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3418862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes34c54.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes32c50.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2528441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes28c42.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.942,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes28c41.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6623146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes33c39.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…281bbacked Yes32c37.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.862853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3528344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x232a…4895backed Yes33c34.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.429053.3%48 W · 42 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes35c34.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked No78c32.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.156966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No64c27.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No72c27.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7333654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No62c26.32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6415555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe89e…7219backed No72c25.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.147876.9%60 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No72c22.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.321,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe49f…e66dbacked No74c20.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.333828.9%11 W · 27 L-6.8wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.464859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No74c19.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x554e…b670backed No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.954757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No79c14.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.962,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa143…1303backed No80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.62766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.