Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d8e1b9e9b8e41db2e52625cbcccf46b4788e80377c4748e7cb94d7a7b8207c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 3,344$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 13c | 2,612$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 2,610$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 49c | 2,207$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.46 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 2,040$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,960$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 3c | 1,128$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,037$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 891.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 9c | 802.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 663.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 576.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 72c | 533.44$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 27c | 500$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 21c | 360.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 16c | 344.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 338.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 336.81$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 14c | 313.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 12c | 283.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 277.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 271.42$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 269.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 253.45$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 226$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 23c | 223$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 218.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 214.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 23c | 208.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 48c | 155$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 154.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 16c | 136.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 132$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 8c | 125.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 119$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 10c | 109.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 10c | 104.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 100.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 10c | 97.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 74c | 97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 19c | 71.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 29c | 52.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 74c | 50.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 40.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 33.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.