Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55e4b6ef2b2a8e3783ca4723f2412b0ee44adb8170306faf96705f7fed59d1dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,892 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,359$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.45 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bd…c88dbacked Over | 68c | 2,962$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 18c | 1,309$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 120 | 20.8%25 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 953.25$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.15 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…3574backed Under | 49c | 881.14$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Under | 72c | 863.29$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.72 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 68c | 733.26$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb31…3bf2backed Over | 60c | 700$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 34c | 556.96$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.27 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 39c | 543.87$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 49c | 504.78$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.73 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 30c | 453.33$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 17c | 447.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x17ff…d7afbacked Over | 43c | 400.16$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 38c | 375.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.32 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…ec76backed Under | 72c | 360.38$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 20c | 353.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Over | 65c | 338.66$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 34c | 321.27$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 740 | 56.9%421 W · 319 L | +46.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 350 | 28.9%101 W · 249 L | -19.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Under | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,208 | 42.2%510 W · 698 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 47c | 212.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 353 | 47.6%168 W · 185 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 33c | 165.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 316 | 48.7%154 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 407 | 42%171 W · 236 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 62c | 102.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 377 | 40.3%152 W · 225 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 30c | 73.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Over | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 62c | 53.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…2990backed Over | 46c | 51.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 35c | 46.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 62c | 40.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095e…abc5backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…53fabacked Over | 27c | 40.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 66c | 34.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ee…2aedbacked Under | 73c | 31.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…9802backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 57c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…f390backed Over | 57c | 21.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 80c | 17.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.