Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8d68a874dd694bc8d94b754220ff130a085393b022bba88c52a57f6bdd3d7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,266 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 7,577$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.72 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 8c | 4,074$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 80c | 3,750$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 18c | 1,967$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.46 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 21c | 1,249$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.13 | 120 | 20.8%25 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 12c | 844.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 2c | 531.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked Over | 79c | 503.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Over | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 18c | 158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Under | 21c | 155.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 19c | 145.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7657backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…a3d8backed Under | 21c | 55.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Under | 21c | 53.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…56c6backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 73cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…65a2backed Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…193cbacked Over | 80c | 23.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…1627backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee18…fe34backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.