Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55e58d45b103917e8eef804745f9e69d1998de852ac683b83d35d51d31dda6e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked L1ga Team | 10c | 3,748$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.91 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c7…620cbacked L1ga Team | 32c | 3,085$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.36 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 2,610$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.93 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed L1ga Team | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.85 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 1,329$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.92 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed L1ga Team | 23c | 1,306$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.21 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Yellow Submarine | 68c | 1,272$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.59 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d1…2bb3backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 996.73$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.02 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…4a55backed L1ga Team | 3c | 797.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed L1ga Team | 6c | 783.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked L1ga Team | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked L1ga Team | 40c | 631.38$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 625$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yellow Submarine | 69c | 603.07$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.21 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed L1ga Team | 40c | 508.33$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.33 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Yellow Submarine | 60c | 488$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 396.39$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 344.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked L1ga Team | 33c | 298$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 256.25$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed L1ga Team | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked L1ga Team | 47c | 184.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…3da4backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 166.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Yellow Submarine | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed L1ga Team | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 145.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf5…c393backed L1ga Team | 40c | 142.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed L1ga Team | 44c | 142.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 103.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yellow Submarine | 62c | 98.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Yellow Submarine | 68c | 71.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…b3e6backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 62.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked L1ga Team | 49c | 59.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked L1ga Team | 44c | 54.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 49.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed L1ga Team | 40c | 26.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed L1ga Team | 48c | 23.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Yellow Submarine | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yellow Submarine | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Yellow Submarine | 67c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group Stage DeciderL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.