NHL · resolved market
Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55e6fb6902dade7186a75b400ad6bc7e1f626f65e0346dd3a5cda2ec118582a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,397 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 5c | 1,803$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 2c | 1,577$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 4c | 482.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 76c | 347.56$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 14c | 265.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Under | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 66c | 197.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 32c | 102.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 28c | 102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 34c | 100.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…6e70backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 75c | 79.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 69.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -67%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 16c | 62.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217d…737ebacked Under | 32c | 60.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 54c | 54.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb79a…090cbacked Under | 37c | 53.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 36c | 52.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Under | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 61c | 45.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…ecacbacked Under | 42c | 41.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…8f08backed Under | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 45c | 34.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Over | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 59c | 23.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 67c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Oilers vs. Golden KnightsOilers won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Oilers won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.