NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c7660f103d86bd6807b2a48ee0e256ee7e867c4fb7e1efdfcc9c53b6ed1f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Golden Knights, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,544 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Golden Knights | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oilers | 68c | 2,162$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.84 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Oilers | 68c | 492.07$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.46 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Oilers | 70c | 307.08$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Golden Knights | 30c | 284$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Oilers | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Golden Knights | 30c | 207$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…eb54backed Golden Knights | 24c | 205.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Oilers | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 77c | 180.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Oilers | 70c | 164.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Golden Knights | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Oilers | 70c | 104$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oilers | 69c | 94.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Oilers | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…f86ebacked Golden Knights | 30c | 56.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…6e69backed Golden Knights | 30c | 55.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…0433backed Golden Knights | 30c | 52.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Oilers | 77c | 46.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Oilers | 77c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Oilers | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Golden Knights | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…b680backed Golden Knights | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. Golden KnightsOilers won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.