TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Oilers vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oilersof Oilers, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$586,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $586,225 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 566 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Oilers51c164,146$83,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,493.2348545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Oilers50c96,799$48,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,477.5667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights50c54,201$27,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,050.9461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Golden Knights49c42,022$20,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,590.748549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Golden Knights50c41,397$20,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,697.8714650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Oilers50c34,567$17,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,283.54949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Golden Knights49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Golden Knights50c15,000$7,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,449.656640.9%27 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Golden Knights50c14,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.981,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Golden Knights28c13,533$3,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,760.9815057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Oilers51c13,000$6,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,370.5461748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Golden Knights49c12,869$6,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,305.836748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Golden Knights50c12,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights50c10,500$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2201,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Golden Knights49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Golden Knights51c9,754$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00040356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Golden Knights49c9,680$4,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,742.8340351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights49c9,353$4,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,598.491,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Golden Knights50c8,755$4,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,377.575251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…77f2backed Golden Knights50c7,943$3,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,932.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Golden Knights49c7,842$3,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,842.5838844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Golden Knights9c6,654$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8439344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Oilers65c6,352$4,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.8311950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Golden Knights50c6,181$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,090.7115145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Oilers72c5,634$4,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.0457157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad84…1f2bbacked Golden Knights49c4,902$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.981030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Golden Knights1c4,678$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.322528%7 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-3.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights50c4,318$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.81,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Golden Knights49c4,081$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.6952050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Oilers53c4,001$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.871,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Golden Knights50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Golden Knights50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Golden Knights50c3,914$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.9764242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Oilers50c3,904$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+246.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Golden Knights22c3,762$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.3325635.9%92 W · 164 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Oilers51c3,696$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.491,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Golden Knights50c3,635$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.2361953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Oilers62c3,492$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.1333151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Golden Knights50c3,333$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.591945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Golden Knights49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Golden Knights49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4701,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Golden Knights50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Golden Knights51c2,953$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Golden Knights50c2,800$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9844551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Golden Knights50c2,700$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.9683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Oilers68c2,558$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.1614757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Golden Knights51c2,520$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2774450%22 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Oilers58c2,500$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.022,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Golden Knights50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25063249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Golden Knights49c2,410$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.9226849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Oilers68c2,387$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.6652172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Golden Knights48c2,219$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.321,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf1…9eaebacked Oilers76c2,188$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.055261.5%32 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Golden Knights49c2,120$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.42,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Oilers50c2,006$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.948748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a17…1b84backed Oilers51c1,962$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.953756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Golden Knights49c1,939$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95021849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c2…640fbacked Oilers53c1,928$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.33154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Golden Knights28c1,851$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.3121555.3%119 W · 96 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Golden Knights39c1,692$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.5542847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Oilers51c1,650$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.523642.8%101 W · 135 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Oilers51c1,608$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.8414837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Golden Knights11c1,578$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4843456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Golden Knights50c1,510$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.1989249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09cf…d623backed Oilers51c1,390$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.142138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Oilers50c1,357$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Golden Knights5c1,258$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8918520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Oilers51c1,200$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.7391653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Golden Knights49c1,200$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.533351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Golden Knights50c1,192$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.7745751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb4…cbb9backed Golden Knights1c1,176$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.991050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bd…b051backed Oilers51c1,120$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…c897backed Oilers54c1,115$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.6214047.9%67 W · 73 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Oilers50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5505253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c6…75adbacked Golden Knights26c1,100$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9840152.4%210 W · 191 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Golden Knights51c1,080$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.811950.4%60 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights17c1,065$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Oilers60c1,065$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.3289355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Golden Knights49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Golden Knights49c1,000$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.7214142.6%60 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Golden Knights1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Oilers51c981.08$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.0817442.5%74 W · 100 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Oilers52c955.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.091560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Oilers53c949.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.341442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ede…17cbbacked Golden Knights50c900$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506958%40 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49e5…03fdbacked Golden Knights1c900$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.180%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Oilers64c868.15$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.5995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Oilers51c850$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.6438445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed Golden Knights50c840.64$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.321752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Golden Knights49c808.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.953951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Golden Knights13c783.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1928340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Oilers66c760.92$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.93,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67be…8a3bbacked Oilers51c731.36$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.3618746.5%87 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Oilers48c729$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.0883149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Golden Knights30c727$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6334538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Oilers51c706.56$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.5647256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Golden Knights31c693$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0127739.4%109 W · 168 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Oilers51c682.35$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.3512328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Oilers74c660.36$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.841,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Golden Knights31c636$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.629442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.