NFL · resolved market
Spread: DEN (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55fe1339bc266bbf23ce2bae75ede0fd6eba61820d4e976e4553da3e42d5ea2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GBof DEN, GB
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa080…234fbacked GB | 52c | 13,437$6,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,449.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed DEN | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed DEN | 49c | 2,028$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.14 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed DEN | 48c | 1,595$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.7 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed DEN | 48c | 1,578$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.44 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed GB | 50c | 1,531$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.06 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked DEN | 48c | 627$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.87 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed GB | 52c | 610$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.8 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed GB | 58c | 489.82$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed GB | 52c | 480.44$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.28 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed GB | 55c | 361.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…2c20backed DEN | 32c | 305.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed DEN | 48c | 260.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked DEN | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…ff8cbacked DEN | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed GB | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed GB | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed DEN | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked DEN | 44c | 84.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked DEN | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed DEN | 47c | 66.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed GB | 54c | 51.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed DEN | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed DEN | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked DEN | 46c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed DEN | 48c | 39.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked GB | 52c | 38.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed GB | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: DEN (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-3.5)Packers won
- GB vs. DEN: O/U 40.5Over won
- GB vs. DEN: O/U 41.5Over won
- Packers vs. BroncosPackers won
- Spread: DEN (-3.5)GB won
- Spread: DEN (-7.5)GB won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.