MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56076a73b8707511b6ff96781bfb9d31f717feacd77fcb92b42899c03095d84a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 5,844$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 4,189$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 3,877$2,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.13 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 2,514$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 2,029$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 1,599$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.77 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 871.11$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.76 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 792.7$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.81 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 387.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 254.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 178.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 154.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 151.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 135.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed San Diego Padres | 79c | 124.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 124.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 113.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 89.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 87.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 86.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 79.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Diego Padres | 78c | 75.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 73.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 63.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Diego Padres | 79c | 62.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 59.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebbe…04b0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 56.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…2d0bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 51.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 36.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 79c | 31.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 26.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked San Diego Padres | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…24efbacked San Diego Padres | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 16.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked San Diego Padres | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed San Diego Padres | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.