TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,898

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae0f…f647backed Over48c39,281$18,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,546.513040%12 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under51c31,561$16,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,138.110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under48c16,600$7,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,967.9916347.9%78 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Over54c7,000$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,22048451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over52c6,966$3,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,343.794,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under51c6,919$3,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,540.888,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over52c4,811$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.3239047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under36c4,424$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.7811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under48c3,194$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.9255053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c2,326$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.396,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76586653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under48c1,391$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.792,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under51c908.98$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.583,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Over52c873.69$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.3797050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c22…0a8cbacked Under49c780$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over52c724.25$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.6486548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over51c648.96$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.994,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under49c639.88$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1445045.8%206 W · 244 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1736…ffcabacked Over51c637.82$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.532445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under49c617$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3341051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Over52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28845748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under48c599.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28861352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Over53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.743153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over44c443.18$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.1829950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Over52c434.04$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3461450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Over52c384.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6473949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c355.58$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.235,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1c…0be3backed Under35c353.57$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1256145.9%28 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Over52c335.81$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1947350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over51c330.18$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.796,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over58c316$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.218,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4613345.9%61 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over52c244.48$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.351,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9044…dcedbacked Under48c205$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under20c202.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.471,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under48c198$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.041,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under17c195$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.159,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6838252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9678…594bbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.683259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under51c188.55$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.34,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under49c174.97$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.762,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked Under51c152.02$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under48c152$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9625648%123 W · 133 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Over49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.510249%50 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over51c145.51$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.864,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over79c125.38$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.471,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.31,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under45c124.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.332,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over66c118$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.185,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over53c106.18$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.984651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4899447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…806fbacked Under49c99.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under49c97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.538,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Under48c96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0853950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9437…235ebacked Over53c89.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.097243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Under46c88.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8917550.3%88 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Over68c81.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0714750.3%74 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Under48c72.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7917645.5%80 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under43c72.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.976,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.677050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under49c68.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7329752.5%156 W · 141 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Under48c68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6468846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed Over53c58.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6817253.5%92 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Under49c53.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.431,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8766…4171backed Under49c52.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5814351.7%74 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a5…1c38backed Under48c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Under48c51.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4951545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246643.9%29 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Under48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245054%27 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under48c49.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5417047.1%80 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Over52c48.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0995252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over52c48.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.052,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Under44c47.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1419542.6%83 W · 112 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Under51c33.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0650954%275 W · 234 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x927c…a79abacked Under48c33.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.958744.8%39 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under52c30.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.139553.7%212 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under40c30.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.165,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under47c29.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df0…1376backed Over52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.857644.7%34 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x205d…2ad2backed Under48c23.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.187753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3564…c4cebacked Under49c21.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Over61c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0629549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.