Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5621032de974e99026b52fb3fbcd2b7d3b9184a139d5a7ef484ae30511a9b89f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Up | 27c | 6,699$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,882.21 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Down | 76c | 2,963$2,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.62 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…17febacked Down | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 77c | 1,922$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.77 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 72c | 1,172$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.83 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 54c | 727.66$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.91 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 63c | 701.42$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.89 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…dd81backed Up | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 38c | 542.17$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…4e58backed Down | 31c | 515.07$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.23 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e36…5dddbacked Down | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 14c | 464.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Up | 33c | 391.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.83 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…e9a5backed Up | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…0cf6backed Down | 75c | 294.26$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…5e50backed Up | 45c | 207.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 20c | 157.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Down | 12c | 149.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Up | 75c | 134$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 16c | 128.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 38c | 124.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Up | 28c | 121.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…e099backed Down | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5c…db6dbacked Up | 17c | 106.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Down | 58c | 102.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…7678backed Up | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Down | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…ed03backed Up | 22c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…3f7dbacked Up | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Down | 29c | 98.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 63c | 89.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Down | 13c | 83.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…d469backed Down | 78c | 82.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Down | 62c | 58.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…8e30backed Up | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Down | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…5e7abacked Up | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Down | 77c | 46.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…2ab0backed Down | 52c | 38.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…619dbacked Up | 43c | 34.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +123%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Down | 50c | 33.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ef…ff77backed Up | 62c | 26.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Down | 79c | 18.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.0wins | -0.35per pick | 64cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.