TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Providence Friars vs. Georgetown Hoyas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Georgetown Hoyasof Providence Friars, Georgetown Hoyas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,332 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Georgetown Hoyas42c6,051$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,485.755,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Georgetown Hoyas54c3,570$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.445,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Georgetown Hoyas64c3,034$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.433,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Providence Friars49c3,009$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.8261652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Providence Friars46c2,963$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.872,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Providence Friars27c2,138$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.311,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Providence Friars21c2,105$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.074,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Georgetown Hoyas71c1,721$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.923,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Georgetown Hoyas44c1,642$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.8626945.7%123 W · 146 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Providence Friars51c1,435$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.681,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Providence Friars51c1,211$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.7737947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Providence Friars56c1,188$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.0731646.8%148 W · 168 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Providence Friars50c1,171$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.752,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Georgetown Hoyas50c1,126$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.7692246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Providence Friars57c1,081$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.1346446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Georgetown Hoyas66c924.82$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.051,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Georgetown Hoyas52c769.85$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.0374152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Providence Friars19c758.81$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4342934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Providence Friars22c691.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.083,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Providence Friars39c516.33$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.31,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Georgetown Hoyas50c495.63$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.8126749.1%131 W · 136 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Providence Friars30c458.64$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2181528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Georgetown Hoyas42c430.97$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.092,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Providence Friars51c423.27$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.871,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Georgetown Hoyas53c416.97$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.541,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Providence Friars50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Providence Friars48c397.5$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5725837.6%97 W · 161 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Georgetown Hoyas51c391.18$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.181,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Georgetown Hoyas67c379.26$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Georgetown Hoyas73c342.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.462,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Georgetown Hoyas50c316.91$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.311,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Providence Friars34c272.64$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0364647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Providence Friars45c239.2$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8977142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Georgetown Hoyas76c203.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1684854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x497a…650fbacked Providence Friars50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Providence Friars50c199.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.582,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Georgetown Hoyas51c194.36$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2433855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Georgetown Hoyas51c194.36$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2483350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Providence Friars40c182.39$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.614450%72 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Georgetown Hoyas44c175.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2924951.8%129 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Georgetown Hoyas51c173.47$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8521850.5%110 W · 108 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Georgetown Hoyas65c152.74$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3160551.4%311 W · 294 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Georgetown Hoyas43c150.4$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.771,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Georgetown Hoyas52c150$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4433445.8%153 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Providence Friars50c140.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.424432%78 W · 166 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Providence Friars50c116.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.584,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fc…28abbacked Georgetown Hoyas42c116$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.288748.3%42 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f49…b482backed Providence Friars51c110.59$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d40…ef02backed Providence Friars48c103.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Providence Friars43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4319522.1%43 W · 152 L-36.3wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-53.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf43c…d7c3backed Providence Friars49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9949157.2%281 W · 210 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Providence Friars51c99.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5550745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Georgetown Hoyas50c95.24$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6229650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Georgetown Hoyas53c94.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.461,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Providence Friars53c94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5518548.6%90 W · 95 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Georgetown Hoyas51c91.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.457748.1%37 W · 40 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5c3…9792backed Providence Friars58c88.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5727055.6%150 W · 120 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Providence Friars22c84.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7533445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Georgetown Hoyas76c84.08$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8314049.3%69 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Georgetown Hoyas51c83.26$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.615248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2a2…23a0backed Georgetown Hoyas39c81.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.438744.8%39 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb186…a946backed Providence Friars31c80.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1450%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Providence Friars49c79.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.192556%14 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Georgetown Hoyas51c77.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9630054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c9…247dbacked Georgetown Hoyas53c74.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Georgetown Hoyas74c66.76$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.671,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Georgetown Hoyas52c66.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0358652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Georgetown Hoyas49c64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6420834.6%72 W · 136 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff0b…befabacked Georgetown Hoyas74c53.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9610244.1%45 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Providence Friars47c51.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.032138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd12…a7b8backed Georgetown Hoyas51c49.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2818644.6%83 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5913…3bbebacked Georgetown Hoyas43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.647057.1%40 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Georgetown Hoyas44c45.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2417647.2%83 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed Providence Friars48c43.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1311840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked Georgetown Hoyas49c40.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6617945.8%82 W · 97 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Georgetown Hoyas33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.85352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Providence Friars51c39.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2262753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46bf…3e5abacked Providence Friars50c39.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5d…5bc8backed Georgetown Hoyas63c39.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.562755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa519…e2b1backed Providence Friars51c38.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4b7…a7f3backed Georgetown Hoyas52c38.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x458a…53aabacked Providence Friars50c37.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c7e…b137backed Georgetown Hoyas50c36.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.075547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a1d…2ef0backed Georgetown Hoyas52c35.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Georgetown Hoyas51c35.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6240755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff73…35ccbacked Providence Friars73c35.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.035650%28 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Georgetown Hoyas56c35.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.452,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Providence Friars46c34.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6522950.7%116 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7daf…217cbacked Providence Friars50c31.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb58f…5c19backed Georgetown Hoyas52c30.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9952…ceb2backed Georgetown Hoyas51c26.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.82757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf58…711fbacked Providence Friars50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Georgetown Hoyas44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1493447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82be…75abbacked Georgetown Hoyas55c24.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.241546.7%7 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick69cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa131…7269backed Providence Friars49c23.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa3…5d5cbacked Providence Friars47c23.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.031040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Georgetown Hoyas71c19.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.743053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff4…743dbacked Georgetown Hoyas77c17.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9114451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd85…7427backed Georgetown Hoyas71c14.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.33650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.