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Asian League · resolved market

Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Al Taawoun Saudi Clubof Al Nassr Saudi Club, Al Taawoun Saudi Club
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,009 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Al Nassr Saudi Club58c11,300$6,603 inLost-$6,602.751346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club64c6,664$4,265 inWon+$2,399.421,80436.6%660 W · 1,144 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Al Nassr Saudi Club39c5,626$2,201 inLost-$2,200.632,65040.2%1,065 W · 1,585 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club41c5,000$2,050 inWon+$2,95030236.1%109 W · 193 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club43c4,306$1,836 inWon+$2,469.931,88250%941 W · 941 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club44c1,594$702 inWon+$891.71,19646.2%553 W · 643 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club46c1,519$700 inWon+$818.2514041.4%58 W · 82 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Al Nassr Saudi Club41c1,213$500 inLost-$50023043%99 W · 131 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club41c1,130$462 inWon+$667.71,80750.2%908 W · 899 L+32.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Al Nassr Saudi Club57c1,049$597 inLost-$597.3889038.1%339 W · 551 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club45c800$360 inWon+$4401100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club65c686.05$445 inWon+$240.892,61237.8%988 W · 1,624 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Al Nassr Saudi Club16c600.25$96 inLost-$96.041450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Al Nassr Saudi Club55c554.85$307 inLost-$306.861,57535.2%554 W · 1,021 L-36.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Al Nassr Saudi Club54c460.59$249 inLost-$248.72650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club41c427$175 inWon+$251.9316755.1%92 W · 75 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club65c370.14$240 inWon+$129.652,62042%1,101 W · 1,519 L+51.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club41c297.45$122 inWon+$175.523753.2%126 W · 111 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ab7…82fabacked Al Nassr Saudi Club54c259.99$140 inLost-$140.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Al Nassr Saudi Club28c213$60 inLost-$60.461,13441.4%470 W · 664 L-17.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x473c…22fdbacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club45c208$93 inWon+$114.921631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.25per pick57cpaid-42.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Al Nassr Saudi Club57c182.87$104 inLost-$103.812240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Al Nassr Saudi Club55c170.16$94 inLost-$93.5439247.7%187 W · 205 L+0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Al Nassr Saudi Club56c140$78 inLost-$77.942,07654.2%1,126 W · 950 L+34.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Al Nassr Saudi Club42c136.8$57 inLost-$56.822348.9%109 W · 114 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf40a…ea0abacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club61c136.8$83 inWon+$53.97561.3%46 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed Al Nassr Saudi Club54c101$55 inLost-$54.54785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club44c100$44 inWon+$5699344.4%441 W · 552 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f4…d4b0backed Al Nassr Saudi Club56c100$56 inLost-$561050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x694c…eb70backed Al Nassr Saudi Club56c100$56 inLost-$561625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club45c85.07$38 inWon+$46.7925561.6%157 W · 98 L+17.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club45c79.99$36 inWon+$43.9936255%199 W · 163 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Al Nassr Saudi Club24c77$18 inLost-$18.4814651.4%75 W · 71 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Al Nassr Saudi Club38c75.24$29 inLost-$28.595042%21 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…0b95backed Al Nassr Saudi Club54c74.07$40 inLost-$40650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0a…f8b9backed Al Nassr Saudi Club31c63.51$20 inLost-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…355abacked Al Nassr Saudi Club48c62.03$30 inLost-$302458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd226…35acbacked Al Nassr Saudi Club51c49.99$26 inLost-$25.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club43c46.64$20 inWon+$26.6119356%108 W · 85 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club40c44$18 inWon+$26.464142.7%274 W · 367 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d8a…4d5fbacked Al Nassr Saudi Club57c36.84$21 inLost-$21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Al Nassr Saudi Club33c35$12 inLost-$11.556960.9%42 W · 27 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Al Taawoun Saudi Club41c32.68$13 inWon+$19.288831.8%28 W · 60 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club68c31.25$21 inWon+$1010542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7eb…da58backed Al Nassr Saudi Club32c31.25$10 inLost-$102755.6%15 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Al Nassr Saudi Club59c25.41$15 inLost-$14.995151%26 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Al Taawoun Saudi Club80c20$16 inWon+$43243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.