Earnings · resolved market
Will Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x574056340b1f6772e51ba86c91f905b6b0e71adde7157c87cdadebf0c69dafce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 21c | 2,134$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.99 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 3c | 1,896$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed No | 24c | 399.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 75c | 380$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 75c | 306.55$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 62c | 246.46$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 24c | 233.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 201$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 76c | 174$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…8c47backed Yes | 76c | 168$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…dac2backed No | 24c | 166$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 161.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 77c | 139.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 107.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…11a4backed Yes | 77c | 102.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 77c | 60.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked No | 38c | 57.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 71c | 56.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 75c | 38.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d1f1backed Yes | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 76c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked Yes | 76c | 17.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed Yes | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.