Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x574665d69b7139f3499f66023164f92f321063951132653a1cf0e1b8f25c82d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 57c | 1,672$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.24 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 1,373$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 511.81$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 477.3$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 444.03$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.03 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 421.28$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.18 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 396.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 335.58$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 279.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 277.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 51c | 217.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 216.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 214$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 48c | 205.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 195.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 177.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 35c | 173.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 151.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 142.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 141.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 43c | 127.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 127.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 116$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 115.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 111.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 56c | 109$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 108.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 55c | 108.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 108.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 49c | 103.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 53c | 99.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 97.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 46c | 95.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 53c | 93.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 59c | 93.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes | 76c | 88.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 87.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked No | 46c | 87.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 86.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 84.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 70.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 68.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 65.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 65c | 64.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 53c | 63.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 53c | 63.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 61.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 60.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 32c | 59.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 51c | 59.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 67c | 56.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 54.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…2ff0backed Yes | 55c | 51.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 48.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 43c | 45.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 55c | 44.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 38c | 44.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 44c | 42.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…faf7backed Yes | 52c | 40.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 54c | 39.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 44c | 38.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 29c | 38.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 40c | 37.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 77c | 35.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 33.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 50c | 32.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…5f64backed No | 44c | 31.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 44c | 30.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 28.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 28.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.