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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,194 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa270…ecadbacked Yes3c1,040$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes36c781.39$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.528,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes5c702.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.532,33520.6%480 W · 1,855 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No60c506.29$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.9610,84837.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L+432.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c477.3$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.065,79560%3,479 W · 2,316 L-110.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No79c290.42$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6211066.4%73 W · 37 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes23c261.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5417941.9%75 W · 104 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7642643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes36c199.37$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.574751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes28c179.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9910853.7%58 W · 50 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c174.75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.852,26539.6%896 W · 1,369 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c170.09$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.624,30253.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L+157.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No80c169.45$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c163.22$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.214,37753.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L-17.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2837…fd84backed No76c160.94$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.924161%25 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes32c155.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.71,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c154.55$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.526,85753.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L+417.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c148.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.572,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c146.69$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.983,11161.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L-31.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes39c139.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c138.54$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.383,19053.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L-98.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes39c131.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.051,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c128$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.734,61658.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L-114.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No70c125$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.58960.7%54 W · 35 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed Yes18c123$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.589138.5%35 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No61c114.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.759,98744.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L+258.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes35c113.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.531,17840.6%478 W · 700 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes13c106.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.868834.1%30 W · 58 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes30c104.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x953f…7518backed Yes30c102.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.743745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes27c94.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.161,02340.1%410 W · 613 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No65c93.82$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.433,78265.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L+32.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes13c93.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3980…6674backed Yes16c81.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.822429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No68c75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.852,03661.7%1,256 W · 780 L+1.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes18c72.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.824450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes31c70.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0978155.3%432 W · 349 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No62c68.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.191,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5214934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.975,47856%3,069 W · 2,409 L-123.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257639.5%30 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.192,74329.7%816 W · 1,927 L-0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes23c61.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.124940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df0…2ff0backed Yes38c60.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes39c59.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1631936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes34c57.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7556654.4%308 W · 258 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No66c55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.751,61161.8%995 W · 616 L+17.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.043,82161.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No60c53.01$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21,08365.6%710 W · 373 L-16.5wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes29c51.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.249,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes35c49.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1427348.7%133 W · 140 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No64c48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281,59578.6%1,253 W · 342 L+41.1wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c1…3365backed Yes22c46.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.352941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes26c42.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3498952.3%517 W · 472 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No65c42.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6687860.6%532 W · 346 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes38c41.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8667336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c41.6$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.344,43565.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L+18.7wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No80c40.68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.282,23056.9%1,269 W · 961 L+64.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No67c40.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3642754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1462539.7%248 W · 377 L+28.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes29c36.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.525230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b72…9a6bbacked Yes28c36.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121560%9 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes41c35.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.472,42235.5%860 W · 1,562 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1447940.5%194 W · 285 L+2.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No61c34.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4246549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes39c33.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0630332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes40c33.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes37c32.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,08038%410 W · 670 L-5.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No61c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4844665.5%292 W · 154 L+1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes37c31.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.761040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes40c31.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5122853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7742151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.183,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3111…a8f8backed Yes37c29.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No62c29.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No68c28.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.252,62854%1,419 W · 1,209 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes40c28.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4254335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No72c26.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3941760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c25.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.967,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.456151.9%291 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cfa…03c7backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf23…3f54backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa143…1303backed No80c23.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.632766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No60c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.423958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No66c20.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.881,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.652,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe558…0ca2backed No64c18.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.652450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No66c17.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9228169.4%195 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No79c15.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.262,21155.9%1,236 W · 975 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No74c13.77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.