Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59add0a7f346562a130e2718e26f26648a3c9244ad66b309ccf98569140656f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 3c | 1,040$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 781.39$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 702.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 506.29$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.96 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 477.3$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.06 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 79c | 290.42$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 110 | 66.4%73 W · 37 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 23c | 261.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 36c | 199.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 28c | 179.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 174.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 170.09$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 80c | 169.45$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 163.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 76c | 160.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 155.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 154.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 148.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 146.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 139.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 138.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 131.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 128$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 18c | 123$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 113.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 13c | 106.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 30c | 104.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 30c | 102.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 27c | 94.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 93.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…3f7cbacked Yes | 13c | 93.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 16c | 81.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes | 18c | 72.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 31c | 70.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 781 | 55.3%432 W · 349 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 68.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 23c | 61.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…2ff0backed Yes | 38c | 60.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 59.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 57.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 566 | 54.4%308 W · 258 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 53.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 51.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 35c | 49.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 22c | 46.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 26c | 42.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 42.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 878 | 60.6%532 W · 346 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 41.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 41.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 40.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 67c | 40.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 29c | 36.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 41c | 35.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 479 | 40.5%194 W · 285 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 61c | 34.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 39c | 33.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 32.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 446 | 65.5%292 W · 154 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 37c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 40c | 31.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3111…a8f8backed Yes | 37c | 29.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 29.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 28.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 28.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 72c | 26.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 25.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 561 | 51.9%291 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…03c7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed No | 80c | 23.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed No | 64c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 281 | 69.4%195 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 74c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.