Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x574dc1466c51475367124aa28ca43bae49163679b134737bcb79533f5b2d3032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 17,821$10,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,109.04 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 44c | 11,364$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 32c | 5,197$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.78 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…1eedbacked Over | 34c | 2,909$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 67c | 1,852$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.13 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 34c | 1,750$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.83 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 1,592$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.71 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 16c | 1,561$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 33c | 1,525$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 68c | 1,500$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 22c | 1,441$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.92 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Over | 53c | 1,200$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed Over | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1c9fbacked Over | 44c | 787$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Under | 69c | 761.69$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 70c | 679.99$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 551.92$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.37 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +67%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…add5backed Over | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 56c | 444.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…af4abacked Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 62c | 351.02$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 30c | 348$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 33c | 299.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 36c | 229.06$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Over | 30c | 169.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 34c | 165.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 35c | 142.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 65c | 133.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Under | 66c | 114.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 31c | 100.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Over | 16c | 98.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 93.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 54c | 79.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 69c | 79.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 60c | 75.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 36c | 69.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over | 17c | 61.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…09a2backed Over | 45c | 59.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Under | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 52c | 43.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 69c | 41.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -12.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 66c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…3ed4backed Under | 68c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Under | 68c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 3.5this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad won
- Spread: PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.