Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09f978fc15e3a574ad674375b5232e17df71fde3c952def7bb50f605ba0be767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 11,712$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,434.59 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 79c | 3,900$3,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.93 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 79c | 2,541$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.02 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Over | 76c | 2,460$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Over | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…eb28backed Over | 77c | 1,680$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 1,491$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.82 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 16c | 1,452$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.61 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 21c | 1,233$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 1,124$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.03 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…12d5backed Over | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed Under | 21c | 999.96$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 21c | 784.6$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Under | 8c | 733$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 22c | 639.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 21c | 548.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 75c | 541.56$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 21c | 418.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 19c | 331.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 315.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 24c | 228.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 183$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 19c | 179.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 19c | 179$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 23c | 175.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Over | 76c | 170$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…4fd7backed Over | 78c | 160.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Over | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Over | 79c | 125.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x140c…f4b4backed Over | 80c | 113.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 21c | 92.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 16c | 90.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Over | 80c | 87.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed Over | 80c | 82.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 78c | 81.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 22c | 77.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Under | 22c | 61.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Over | 77c | 57.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…c557backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Under | 22c | 49.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 76c | 49.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Over | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…b9e6backed Over | 80c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Over | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 78c | 20.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…f948backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 79c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…a8a9backed Over | 79c | 14.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 1.5this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad won
- Spread: PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.