Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x577c4a90802039705dbb65991ccd0124f72b62c0c4c693a7aa2432ebaa8752d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 21c | 352.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 208.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 34c | 137.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 124.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 121$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 114$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 109.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed Yes | 41c | 88.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 88.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 36c | 87.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 48c | 75.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 74.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 67.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 59.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 62c | 58.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 35c | 57.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 56.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 37c | 55.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 50.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 48.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 35c | 46.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 64c | 45.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 40c | 45.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 66c | 44.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 42.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 42.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 38c | 41.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 39c | 41.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 38.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 43c | 36.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 35.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 61c | 35.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…6137backed Yes | 38c | 34.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 62c | 32.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 32.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 32.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…98eabacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 30.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 36c | 28.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 28.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 27.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 25.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 24.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 23.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc183…1f76backed No | 64c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 63c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.