Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fb59b237337e7fed204669861a1dd19b0070ca2487e33a0548df2513bfb5a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 297.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 278.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 253.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 244.38$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 204.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 26c | 194.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 38c | 189.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 184.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 174.73$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cf…2b63backed Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 153.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 146$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 66c | 145.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 134.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 129.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 128.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 28c | 115.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 113.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 111.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 24c | 103.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 99.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 98.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 88.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 87.85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 79.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 64c | 78.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 77.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 72.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 77c | 66.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 64c | 66.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 24c | 57.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 56.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 36c | 55.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 50.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 50.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 24c | 46.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 43.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 43.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 30c | 42.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 30c | 41.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 40.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cae…7419backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 28c | 38.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 64c | 35.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 34.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 33.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 40c | 32.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…2541backed No | 65c | 30.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 48c | 28.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 47c | 27.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 26.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 23.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 54c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 65c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 77c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…be40backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.