Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaab974177f03af3f0f71f31b328c129966768fa4add5b55935b1d3dbff67b23e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 717.93$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.84 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 14c | 567.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.06 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 26c | 312$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.07 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 9c | 303.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.44 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 16c | 279.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.86 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 66c | 256.59$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 233.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 10c | 215.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 209.45$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 19c | 208.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.81 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 181.82$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 176.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 10c | 171$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 76c | 156.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 138.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 62c | 128.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 120.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 20c | 111.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 108.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 106$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 64c | 99.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 74c | 89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 79.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 73.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 27c | 70.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 70.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 56c | 63.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 70c | 55.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 26c | 54.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 32c | 51.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 50.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 66c | 45.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 43.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 43.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 67c | 39.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 42c | 39.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 63c | 25.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…33bcbacked No | 67c | 15.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.