Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5781224013086b77162ab6ee1bc4d1ec26bb1d99eab58d960a099de02629884d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Team Spirit | 64c | 5,629$3,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.37 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit | 66c | 3,011$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.02 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…a6e1backed MOUZ | 20c | 2,517$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 28c | 2,440$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.27 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 28c | 1,918$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.63 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 30c | 1,137$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.33 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed MOUZ | 48c | 1,040$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 33c | 1,036$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.88 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…efddbacked MOUZ | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 40c | 642$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.86 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed MOUZ | 23c | 447$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 47c | 426.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked MOUZ | 11c | 393.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Team Spirit | 80c | 291.56$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed MOUZ | 46c | 196.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ | 14c | 160.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Team Spirit | 59c | 143.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed MOUZ | 19c | 132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Spirit | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed MOUZ | 22c | 75.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Team Spirit | 59c | 54.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 53.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Team Spirit | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…158fbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.