Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b18a8f480d79864208ec8fd3bdb2fcb6f5f1efb2c70656ff9c58848c36bd32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Team Spirit, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed Team Spirit | 65c | 24,099$15,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,576.85 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…aff8backed MOUZ | 24c | 13,799$3,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,509.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +319.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed MOUZ | 11c | 12,167$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,807.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +347.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked MOUZ | 64c | 3,126$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.96 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 31c | 3,001$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.29 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 2,149$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.3 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked MOUZ | 30c | 2,007$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked MOUZ | 50c | 1,308$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.99 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 43c | 1,248$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.56 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 47c | 1,187$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.31 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked MOUZ | 78c | 987$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.91 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 49c | 956.58$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.05 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Team Spirit | 66c | 934.78$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 37c | 670.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.79 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit | 69c | 499$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.31 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Team Spirit | 65c | 461.9$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.92 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ | 45c | 434$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.7 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Team Spirit | 61c | 413$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Team Spirit | 48c | 394.78$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.12 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…29d6backed Team Spirit | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked MOUZ | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Team Spirit | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed MOUZ | 46c | 85.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Team Spirit | 59c | 57.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Spirit | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Team Spirit | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked MOUZ | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 39c | 27.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 551 | 61.7%340 W · 211 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Team Spirit | 66c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3)Team Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.