TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Tampere: Maks Kasnikowski vs Otto Virtanen

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Otto Virtanenof Maks Kasnikowski, Otto Virtanen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,939
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,939 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef53…4591backed Maks Kasnikowski15c13,260$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017543.4%76 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Maks Kasnikowski18c2,294$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.568,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked Otto Virtanen62c2,068$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.9348855.9%273 W · 215 L-20.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e60…3badbacked Otto Virtanen61c2,055$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.598743.7%38 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid0%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Otto Virtanen74c1,738$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.148,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Maks Kasnikowski38c1,496$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.353,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2510…7a97backed Maks Kasnikowski16c1,354$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.597622.4%17 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Otto Virtanen77c1,299$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.762956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e5e…b4afbacked Otto Virtanen78c1,279$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.775367.9%36 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Otto Virtanen75c1,067$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6738557.1%220 W · 165 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Maks Kasnikowski39c1,002$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.6985250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Otto Virtanen61c815.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2712754.3%69 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Otto Virtanen62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.4594068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Otto Virtanen74c773.28$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.194,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Maks Kasnikowski39c769.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008956.2%50 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Otto Virtanen72c738.26$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.7111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Maks Kasnikowski38c632.79$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.461,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Maks Kasnikowski39c599.97$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.917,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Maks Kasnikowski38c582.82$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.478252.4%43 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Maks Kasnikowski28c565.11$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.232,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d5…0c94backed Maks Kasnikowski15c553$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Otto Virtanen80c399.27$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.428,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba24…0e7fbacked Maks Kasnikowski15c375$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3171…b991backed Maks Kasnikowski39c356.41$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13933551.9%174 W · 161 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7787…bf58backed Otto Virtanen61c337.87$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7714447.2%68 W · 76 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Maks Kasnikowski30c325.68$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.465,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Otto Virtanen80c312.5$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Maks Kasnikowski39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Maks Kasnikowski39c288.13$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.71,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Maks Kasnikowski39c259.74$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.31,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Maks Kasnikowski40c250.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027949.1%137 W · 142 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Otto Virtanen62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9491754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Maks Kasnikowski39c206.27$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8539648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Maks Kasnikowski39c205$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9530648.4%148 W · 158 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Maks Kasnikowski21c199.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.381,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Maks Kasnikowski39c177.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Maks Kasnikowski39c177.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017748%85 W · 92 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da4…31bfbacked Otto Virtanen63c171.8$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.574949%24 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed Maks Kasnikowski39c153.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014757.8%85 W · 62 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Maks Kasnikowski16c152.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.522,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Maks Kasnikowski39c149.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4926049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Maks Kasnikowski39c149.75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.727139.1%106 W · 165 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Maks Kasnikowski39c140.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7632333.7%109 W · 214 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b8…ff48backed Otto Virtanen80c125.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.510955%60 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b1…df57backed Maks Kasnikowski8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015531%48 W · 107 L+12.5wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Maks Kasnikowski40c113.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512035.8%43 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Maks Kasnikowski40c113.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4517147.4%81 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Maks Kasnikowski39c106.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.441,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8b…13e6backed Otto Virtanen61c101.64$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6411462.3%71 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Maks Kasnikowski38c101$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.87,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Maks Kasnikowski25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527437.2%102 W · 172 L-21.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Maks Kasnikowski39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Maks Kasnikowski39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Maks Kasnikowski38c98.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.492,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bad…04a9backed Otto Virtanen63c97.27$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Maks Kasnikowski30c96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8672147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Otto Virtanen60c94.55$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3855941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb7…0acebacked Maks Kasnikowski43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017943.6%78 W · 101 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Maks Kasnikowski31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.536,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f56…50edbacked Otto Virtanen61c73.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4827748.7%135 W · 142 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Maks Kasnikowski42c70.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3492237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Otto Virtanen62c65.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8922547.1%106 W · 119 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Otto Virtanen62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.522,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1614…ec02backed Otto Virtanen63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Maks Kasnikowski39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.183447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Maks Kasnikowski39c56.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.031,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03dd…49c8backed Maks Kasnikowski40c55.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2746851.5%241 W · 227 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Maks Kasnikowski38c52.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Maks Kasnikowski39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Maks Kasnikowski39c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.593945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed Maks Kasnikowski38c49.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.715839.9%63 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6384…3d67backed Otto Virtanen61c47.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6312061.7%74 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Maks Kasnikowski39c42.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5730055%165 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c55…3408backed Otto Virtanen61c39.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.349162.6%57 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Otto Virtanen79c38.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1970456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Maks Kasnikowski40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517140.9%70 W · 101 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33fc…dc88backed Otto Virtanen61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.796045%27 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Maks Kasnikowski39c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.091,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee3…2e6abacked Maks Kasnikowski38c28.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1129945.8%137 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a9e…0dfcbacked Maks Kasnikowski38c27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick39cpaid-82.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f13…203abacked Otto Virtanen75c25.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.499161.5%56 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x007b…1fd2backed Otto Virtanen75c25.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4916964.5%109 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…a618backed Otto Virtanen75c25.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.492572%18 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Otto Virtanen62c25.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5630746.3%142 W · 165 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…d7b5backed Otto Virtanen59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.352552.4%275 W · 250 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…b70dbacked Maks Kasnikowski40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7b…b79fbacked Otto Virtanen61c19.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.679867.3%66 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3785…f577backed Otto Virtanen61c16.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.45248.1%25 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Otto Virtanen77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6887741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.