Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57cb4581fe3a6a8f0b644f5e578189f30ae1827ed60a326a2528b96153e4e749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 60c | 723.42$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 35c | 624.16$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 39c | 546$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 61c | 511$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 415.63$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 301.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 284.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 65c | 278.53$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 69c | 269.07$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 36c | 231.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 38c | 231.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 25c | 215.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 203$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 64c | 182.69$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 65c | 153.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 31c | 148.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 60c | 148.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 131.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 118.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 33c | 106.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 63c | 106.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 102.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…2081backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 99.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 93.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked No | 20c | 79.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 66c | 76.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 66c | 76.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 31c | 75.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 74c | 74.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 74.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 72.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 69.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 35c | 64.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 63c | 62.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 61.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 60.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 60.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 49c | 58.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 48c | 56.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 45c | 56.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 55.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 54.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 62c | 50.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 50.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 66c | 49.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 36c | 42.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 45c | 40.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 40.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 71c | 36.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 62c | 35.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 62c | 33.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 74c | 30.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…aec5backed Yes | 71c | 29.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 67c | 27.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 75c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 60c | 22.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 64c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 69c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…91adbacked Yes | 77c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…d0e4backed Yes | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e1…dc9dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…75f4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.