MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d47e7bcb192d2346120b661befbc863e55598a8e60efbb004efe8a87b9bc21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Yes | 57c | 1,863$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 44c | 1,250$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.33 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 43c | 1,234$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 43c | 921.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Yes | 56c | 636.97$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.09 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…ca87backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…5cb1backed No | 2c | 530.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 56c | 475$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef2…0a80backed No | 43c | 386.77$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 57c | 234$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Yes | 58c | 185.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…b953backed No | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Yes | 56c | 153.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 55c | 100.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…e79dbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 55c | 73.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 58c | 50.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Yes | 57c | 45.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Yes | 58c | 42.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 57c | 40.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948e…b321backed Yes | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 57c | 24.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.