MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b6030a527c2558ead9cdb840c8c1a624599b16cc2c4e29aa1309e207afa95d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 47c | 106,922$50,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,084.23 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 53c | 50,010$26,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,504.7 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 15,464$8,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,113.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 8,238$4,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,871.86 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 8,084$4,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,795.36 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 54c | 5,556$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.56 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 53c | 3,790$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.07 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 3,072$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 2,834$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 44c | 2,173$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.91 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,935$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 1,788$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 1,560$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.35 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 1,469$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.63 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 1,142$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.32 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 33c | 924$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.77 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 891.82$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.91 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 677.17$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 53c | 578$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.66 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 483$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 47c | 454.63$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.68 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 19c | 299.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 37c | 261.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 35c | 204$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 53c | 190.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 54c | 173$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 33c | 166.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 45c | 165.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 151.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 47c | 118.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 102.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 78.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 29c | 78.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 37c | 65.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 55c | 47.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 66c | 46.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 45.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 41.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 37.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78fe…df2fbacked Over | 47c | 28.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 54c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…fe32backed Over | 47c | 26.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 80c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 70c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 56c | 19.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ead…f0fbbacked Under | 66c | 15.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.