MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e2304d1bc5594729253792ad49993d317531dac19c078908727dd73b733fc8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 8,299$5,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,993.07 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 7,563$2,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.84 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 2,300$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.18 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 1,536$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.04 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 664.08$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.63 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 517.11$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.87 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Chicago Cubs | 7c | 426$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 389$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.53 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 330.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.12 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Chicago Cubs | 17c | 299$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 294.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.83 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 224$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 219$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 212.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 208.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 185.07$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 14c | 180.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 162.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 159.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 157.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 141.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…0a0bbacked Chicago Cubs | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 139.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 137$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 131.37$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 130$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 115$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 114.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 105.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 104.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 79.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 76.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 76.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 74.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 62.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 61.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 42.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 37.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 34.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 24.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 20.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 19.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.