Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57dadc878d595beb21d1126a1a6ffba985b5027fb62d6f66fcb3ad175956fac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed Yes | 0c | 14,807$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 1c | 9,375$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 749.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 26c | 398$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 298.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 192.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 78c | 127.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 119.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 20c | 117.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 75c | 109.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 106.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 101.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 31c | 98.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…5e10backed Yes | 32c | 88.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 82.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 81.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 81.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 79.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 73.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 67.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 73c | 65.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed No | 77c | 63.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 56.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 50.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 50.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 46.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 30c | 42.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 31c | 41.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 28c | 41.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 31c | 40.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 30c | 40.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 29c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 37.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 73c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 71c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…5bf0backed No | 75c | 20.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 72c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…61debacked No | 77c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.