Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab14495122245477c1e08864b59eb2badd014cddb08522748e5b06ca0863d4d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 0c | 9,060$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 520$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 4c | 505.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 274.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 268.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 25c | 200.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 175.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 143.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 20c | 142.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 57c | 132.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 38c | 129.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 99.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 49c | 97.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked No | 41c | 96.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 91.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 77c | 83.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 80.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 48c | 72.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…3594backed Yes | 48c | 68.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 66.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 61.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 60.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 32c | 57.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 22c | 57.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 51c | 56.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 52.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 51.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 49c | 49.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 68c | 47.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 31c | 40.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 31c | 40.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 39.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…5c2abacked No | 47c | 35.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 55c | 32.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 32.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 43c | 24.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 55c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 67c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 69c | 14.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.