MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x580fe927a0aafa93c6f8d18d3f148294727d01e3c38b8b81829b376309ab2865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 3,348$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.12 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 2,726$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.19 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 2,048$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.76 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 1,545$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.58 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 1,360$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.93 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 384.86$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 369.44$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.82 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 303$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 212.71$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 182 | 57.7%105 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 176.19$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners | 21c | 135$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 102.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 86.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 73.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Chicago Cubs | 20c | 65.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 61.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 38.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Seattle Mariners | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 28.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Seattle Mariners | 74c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.