MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c740c8401088a0228ed87df8d7ecb433eab3cedbe749427071de001794426bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 42c | 14,968$6,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,681.15 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 8,957$4,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,865.78 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 58c | 4,181$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 58c | 2,180$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.37 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 2,120$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 58c | 1,541$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.88 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 64c | 1,067$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.04 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 58c | 774.22$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.31 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 41c | 748.37$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.49 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 40c | 571.13$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.68 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Under | 5c | 532.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 520.05$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 56c | 514.73$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.7 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 415.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.43 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 59c | 415$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.63 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 59c | 369.41$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.95 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 49c | 221.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 60c | 202.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 41c | 197.56$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.56 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 58c | 140.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fca…3487backed Under | 60c | 132.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 56c | 125.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 125.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 41c | 122$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 41c | 119.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 41c | 119.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 41c | 119.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 41c | 119.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 58c | 108.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 59c | 98.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 88.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Under | 60c | 79.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 41c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Under | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 41c | 58.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Over | 42c | 44.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…ad67backed Under | 60c | 43.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 39c | 31.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 40c | 30.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Under | 60c | 29.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 41c | 25.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 60c | 25.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 41c | 24.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 60c | 20.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.