TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,993

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Over49c89,612$43,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,70343647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under51c49,652$25,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,325.864,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed Over49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,4001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under60c21,111$12,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,748.891,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…0eaebacked Under50c18,996$9,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,486.62850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under51c18,535$9,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,450.561,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under51c18,475$9,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,422.1911,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over41c18,266$7,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,831.2410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under51c11,772$5,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.063,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under50c7,331$3,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,669.721,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under51c5,800$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95845748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.991,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Under51c4,634$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,363.4927452.6%144 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over23c4,495$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,453.698,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over50c3,992$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9966,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over50c3,847$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.674,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Over50c3,112$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.9177647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53045252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0205,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02044451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00034942.7%149 W · 200 L-19.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a3…9e12backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Under51c1,288$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.6627348%131 W · 142 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over50c1,046$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.1365549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over38c869.76$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.652,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Under50c839.24$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6223758.6%139 W · 98 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over50c681.84$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.9241346.7%193 W · 220 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under51c575.39$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.451,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Over49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25528753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Over49c499.99$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2558045%36 W · 44 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over51c392.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.152,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15327952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Over27c300$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21827244.9%122 W · 150 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under49c276.49$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.742,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over51c272.23$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5658352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Under51c252$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.521,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over41c250$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.59,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe66f…0f3ebacked Over50c244.96$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.484355.8%24 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under51c239.94$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3722050.5%111 W · 109 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over13c215.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.992,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under67c206.08$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.391,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under63c200.27$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over12c200$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1764,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Over48c191.49$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5845445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Over53c188.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8640447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over30c166.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.261,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Under60c150.18$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1112759.1%75 W · 52 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over49c145.59$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.252,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Under67c140$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.882636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over60c130.85$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.341,91153.1%1,014 W · 897 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fca…3487backed Over52c125.52$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.251650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6059549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Over49c102$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.021968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3003…30f5backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506261.3%38 W · 24 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5199447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404746.8%22 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Under52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4041249.5%204 W · 208 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7f…d002backed Over52c74.96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.983847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over48c64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2812752%66 W · 61 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Over49c62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6235650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.678754.6%430 W · 357 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c78…7d67backed Under51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.67445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over49c58.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.918142%34 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Over48c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269642.7%41 W · 55 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64e8…b506backed Over23c49.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.962962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Under51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2573143.4%317 W · 414 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d0…681ebacked Under51c42.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8599…ad67backed Over52c41.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.913342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over50c41.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.551,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under51c37.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under51c34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.348,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba5e…153bbacked Over50c31.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6911550.4%58 W · 57 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1b…aa71backed Under52c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5610048%48 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1488147.8%421 W · 460 L+4.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed Under51c27.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.179755.7%54 W · 43 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under51c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7534846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b4…6855backed Under66c22.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7714149.6%70 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.222853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under64c20.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3347056.6%266 W · 204 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under64c20.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3373355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Under79c20.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4531957.4%183 W · 136 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.